In exclusive reports from Geneva, Orlando and Los Angeles, Laura Mueller and Olivier Bonnassies of Commercial Aviation Online reveal how the money-men behind the global aerospace business are hunkering down for tougher times ahead.

Even as orders continue to flow in, a growing number of senior industry figures and analysts are warning of a painful reckoning to come.

At the Annual Aircraft Finance and Commercial Aviation forum in Geneva, respected analyst Chris Tarry, chief executive of CTaira warned delegates that over-ordering was unquestionably happening.

“We are at a turning point in the European and US markets. Too much capacity is likely to enter the short-haul markets in Europe in particular,” he says. “The backlog of narrowbody aircraft is a concern and we will need to adjust this over the next three years.”

Tarry say

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