Air cargo has always been an optimistic industry, and in the second half of 2008, when traffic volumes started to drop, air cargo managers were confident that the downturn would be short-lived. Even in December and January, when year-on-year declines reached 23%, plenty of executives still predicted that there would be a sharp recovery by the third quarter of this year. The optimists expected that once the economy recovered, companies would be caught short with excessively low inventory levels and would rush to use air freight to replenish them. This is what had always happened in previous air cargo downturns.

It is therefore ironic that nine months later, with reports of a fewgreen shoots and definite signs of inventory restocking, air cargo is locked in the worst depression it has ever known. Managers have not just discounted the prospect of a sharp bounce back,

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